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Saturday, February 2, 2008
The Economy On The Edge
THE ECONOMY ON THE EDGE
By Peter Coy
Will the
No, it's not just you-the
Oil has exploded to nearly $100 a barrel, gold is near an all-time high, and the cost of food is soaring. It seems like high prices are breaking out all over, right? Yet the core rate of inflation is less than 2% a year, according to one widely followed measure. Confusion reigns right on up to the Federal Reserve, whose interest rate setters are openly disagreeing about whether more cuts are needed.
Step back a little, though, and the situation becomes clearer. What we're observing, in all its bizarreness, is the ancient paradox of what happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object. The irresistible force in this case is the
So, either the
THE BIG PICTURE
You can't know for sure how all of this will turn out of course. But by focusing on the big picture rather than the minutiae, you can at least know the key questions to ask and the crucial indicators meriting your attention. These range from widely followed measures like the rate of home sales and the monthly survey of household jobholding to obscure ones like the risk premium on loans between banks.
What makes the economy even more unpredictable than usual is that the main threat to growth, a credit crunch, emanates from deep within the financial system. That's not given the something economists understand well, especially complexity of today's high-powered and globally interconnected financial markets.
The closest analogy is the credit crunch in the early 1990s, when bad commercial real estate loans damaged the banking system. Lending to businesses virtually stopped, and Citicorp nearly went bust. At the time, economists disagreed about how badly the bank problems would hurt the
So which will it be this time – strong growth or a plunge off the edge? The first place to look is the housing market, where the lending excesses were most extreme. Don't focus on falling home prices. Instead, watch for whether the pace of sales picks up in response price good to declines. It’s good news for the economy if more houses sold. Sales of new homes mean more work for carpenters and plumbers. Even sales of existing homes generate jobs for real estate agents, closing attorneys, furniture sales people, and others. It's bad news if prices and sales in potential fall in tandem because it could mean buyers are fearful of even bigger price declines. In fact, that's exactly what seems to be happening. The September sales pace for existing homes was down 19% from a year earlier, event though the median price was off 4%. Goldman, Sachs & Co. economists said on Nov. 7 that
A BOOST FROM A BROAD
Bad as it is, the outright depression in housing can't kill the economy as long as job growth is healthy. That's the second thing to watch, and so far, so good. The
Watch out, though, for hidden weakness. While employers reported more jobs in October, a separate government survey of showed a 250,000 decline in the number of people who said they had jobs. Some economists argue the household survey is more accurate at economic turning points such as this. Pointing to that survey and other data, economic consultant Jack W. contends the
Optimists say debt problems are simply too small of an iceberg sink a ship as mighty as the $ 14 trillion
With a generalized credit crunch threatening, it is suddenly essential to search for signs of it in such arcana as interest rate between risky and less risky securities. Trouble broke out in mid-August when investment banks began to report losses on mortgage-backed securities. The markets appeared to healing in September and most of October, but they've abruptly worsened since.
Market insiders are alarmed by evidence that banks don't trust each other. The
What's so scary about a credit crunch is that everyone-from banks to corporations to households-retrenches simultaneously, and of caution kills an excess growth. That hasn't happened yet, but there are hints we could be near a tipping point. The Federal Reserve reported on Nov. 5 that banks said they tightened lending standards in October, and equally unsettling, demand for loans from both business and consumers has decreased. Chief financial officers’ gloominess is the worst since surveying began during the 2001 recession, according to
The holiday selling season will provide crucial information on the economy has left shoppers feeling merry or harried. Several major retailers who are among the first to detect changes in the consumer mood, began their holiday discounting in early November this year, about three weeks ahead of normal, according to Stevan Buxbaum, executive vice-president of Buxbaum Group, an Agoura Hills (Calif.) investor and consultant. Wal-Mart kicked off its Black Friday pricing on Nov. 2 with Fisher-Price NASCAR Ride-On cars for $144.72 vs. $239.99 at KB Toys. That kind of pricing smacks of desperation to some analysts. “I expect a really tough Christmas," says William B. Greiner, chief investment officer of UMB Asset Management in
So far, the subprime mess is more of a human tragedy than a stopper for the economy. It’s being felt most by the lower middle class, which isn't the driving force in economic growth. The bottom 40% of the population by income accounts for just 21% of consumer expenditures. Julia L. Coronado, a senior
The stock market is the economy's best-known weather vane, but it's probably the hardest to interpret. So far this year, stock prices have trended higher, signaling that investors expect corporate profits to keep rising. Lately, though, Wall Street is getting edgy. The Dow Jones industrial average shed 362 points on Nov. and the same on Nov 7. Falling stock prices can darken the economic outlook by making investors feel poorer and less willing to spend.
With major firms such as Citigroup and Merrill Lynch seemingly unable to assess the depths of their own troubles, the possibility of the economy slamming into a brick wall is palpable. The
-With Nanette Byrnes in Chapel Hill, N.C., Dawn Kopechi in Washington, and Mara Der Hovanesian in New York.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Humor
Salute the Generals
The soldier replied, "Because it was General Electric."Said the officer to the soldier, "Private, why did you salute that refrigerator?"
"And that jeep?" the officer asked.
Replied the soldier, "Because it was General Motors."
UN Survey
In Africa, they did not know what "food" means.A survey was conducted by the U.N. worldwide. The only question asked was: "Would you please give your most honest opinion about solutions to the food shortage in the rest of the world?" The survey was a HUGE failure.
In Western Europe, they did not know what "shortage" means.
In Eastern Europe, they did not know what "opinion" means.
In the Middle East, they did not know what "solution" means.
In South America, they did not know what "please" means.
In Asia, they did not know what "honest" means.
And in the USA, they did not know what "THE REST OF THE WORLD" means.
Japan bashing
Toshiba put his hand up and replied, "Lee Iacocca, 1989."It was the first day of school and a new student, Toshiba, the son of a Japanese businessman, entered the fourth grade. The teacher greeted the class and said, "Let's begin by reviewing American history. Who said, 'Give me liberty or give me death'?" The teacher saw only a sea of blank faces except for that of Toshiba who had his hand up. "Patrick Henry, 1775," said the boy. "Now," said the teacher, "who said 'Government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth'?" Again, no response except from Toshiba: "Abraham Lincoln, 1863." The teacher snapped at the class, "You should be ashamed, Toshiba is new to our country, and he knows more about it than you do." As the teacher turned to write something on the blackboard, she heard a loud whisper: "Damned Japanese." "Who said that?" She demanded.
Arnold and Clinton
Arnold Schwarzenegger is in some trouble. Today, the Los Angeles Times broke a story that quoted six women who claimed that Arnold Schwarzenegger sexually harassed them. When asked about it, President Clinton said, “Six? That's not enough experience to be governor!"
—Conan O'Brien Bad News from Moses
The Israelites were waiting for Moses to come down from Mt. Sinai after negotiating with God over the Ten Commandments. Finally, a tired Moses appears and begins to speak: "I've got some good news, and I've got some bad news."Moses says. "The good news is, I got him down to ten. The bad news is, adultery is still in."
Sciences ( 3 )
Sciences :
1. Water is everywhere but not clean enough to drink
2. Oil shock shift national agenda from politic to economics
3. Dads set example for healthy habits
4. Know when to stop drinking water
5. Economy and democracy: Don’t turn out the light
1. Water is everywhere but not clean enough to drink
2. Oil shock shift national agenda from politic to economics
3. Dads set example for healthy habits
4. Know when to stop drinking water
5. Economy and democracy: Don’t turn out the light
( 1 )
Water is everywhere but not clean enough to drink
Water is everywhere but not clean enough to drink
Following are some facts about strains on world freshwater supplies:
Overview
· One billion people, about a sixth of humanity, lack access to safe drinking water, according to UN data. And one in three people live in regions with water scarcity.
· Agriculture absorbs 74 percent of all water taken humans from rivers, lakes, aquifers by and wetlands against 18 percent for industry and percent for municipalities. Demand for water is with population rocketing a rising.
· In many places, 30-40 percent or more of water is lost because of leaks in pipes and canals illegal and tapping.
· Some say the issue is management: “There is enough land, water and human capacity to produce enough food for growing population over the next 50 years, so in this sense world not running out of water.” A study by the International Water (IWMI) in August.
Drink and health
· Governments set a Millennium Goal in 2000 halving the proportion people with no access to safe drinking water by 2015. The goal is within reach, according to a 2006 UN review, but the world is lagging in a linked goal of better sanitation.
· Diarrhoea and malaria, the main water-related diseases, killed 1.8 million and 1.3 million people respectively in 2002, almost all of them children under the age of 5.
· Achieving 2015 the drinking water goal will require US$10-$30 billion extra a year on top of amounts already spent.
Agriculture
· The amount of water needed for crop production will rise 60-90 percent by 2050, to 11,000-13,500 cubic kilometers from 7,200 today, depending on factors including population growth and crop yields, according to the IWMI report.
· A calorie of food needs about a liter of water to produce typical food consumption is 3,000 calories a day liters per person, or liters 3,000 of water. A kilo of grain takes 500-4,000 liters, a kilo of industrially produced meat is 10,000 liters.
· Rising production of biofuels – from crops such as maize, soybeans or sugarcane - could complicate efforts to feed the world and may add strains to irrigation.
· Emissions of greenhouse gases, widely blamed on burning fossil fuels, are likely to raise world temperatures and bring more floods, droughts and erosion, most experts say. Some areas might benefit from longer growing seasons.
· To ease water shortages, the IWMI report urges putting the focus on improving rainfed, farming in poor regions. Collecting rain from rooftops or simple pumps to raise water from rivers, for instance, could help millions in sub-Saharan
· Recycling can help. Water in the
Industry
· Industry can often cut its water demand by 40-90 percent, given proper incentives, according to UN data.
· Only about 25 percent of the world's dams are involved in producing hydropower.
Reuters.
(2)
Oil shock shift national agenda from politic to economics
Amando Doronila
The record rise in oil prices to US$75 a barrel last week has raised fears among oil consuming countries from big consumers like the United States to small economies like the 'Philippines - that high energy costs would snuff out economic growth.
The impact on the
For months since July last year, when political crisis engulfed the Arroyo administration, Filipinos have been led to believe that political issues were the center of their universe, and that economic issues were of little consequence to their lives, taking secondary importance to their consuming passion to unseat an administration that they intensely loathed.
In fact, it was deemed unfashionable in some political circles to talk about the economic effects of the continuing political poor Filipinos. It has been argued that paying attention to economic issues would take our eyes off the legitimacy issues rocking the Arroyo administration.
The grim of another international oil shock have abruptly shifted national attention away from the highly engrossing political issues highlighted by the Supreme Court's decision voiding certain portions of Executive Order 464 and upholding the right of Congress to compel, under certain circumstances, executive department officials, to testify at congressional inquiries.
The specter of another oil shock has so alarmed the political class that within a week after the Court's decision, the congressional and executive agenda has abruptly shifted focus to the oil prices spike, with both administration officials and lawmakers of any consequence now giving priority to how to absorb the escalating prices of crude, has added $15 to the cost of a barrel in a matter of weeks.
There is a sort of panic reaction to the record crude prices, and the alarm has at last awakened the political protagonists to the reality that the economy cannot permanently be excluded as a critical element in defining the priorities of the national agenda.
At a meeting of ministers of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries at
Increasing OPEC output, he said, was not expected to lower the prices and would only serve to clog the market with additional supplies. But he predicted that the price of oil would eventually drop to a more realistic and stable $50 to $60 a barrel.
But until this happens, the
The oil price rise has moved up to the top of the national agenda proposals calling for a special session of Congress to consider such measures as exempting petroleum products from the 12-percent value-added tax and scrapping the 3 percent tax on oil imports. A consensus seems to be developing among legislators belonging to both the administration coalition and the opposition to give priority to suspending the 12-percent VAT for the purpose of blunting the impact of the oil price increases.
These two proposed measures are not painless solutions. Administration officials say that the suspension of the l2-percent VAT would cost the government P29 billion yearly in prospective revenue, while scrapping the tariff would mean P7.5 million in foregone revenue. The suspension of the VAT requires a joint resolution by both Houses of Congress.
This unaccustomed shift in priorities to economic concerns has mercifully re-routed the congressional agenda from the confrontational course it was moving into with Malacanang following the Supreme Court's decision on EO 464.
This diversion comes as a welcome relief from the over-politicized national agenda that has focused on the crisis of legitimacy of the Arroyo administration.
It postpones a political showdown as a number of Senate committees prepared to resume inquiries into issues that have been suspended since September last year, when President Macapagal-Arroyo issued EO 464 banning executive department officials from testifying at legislative inquiries without her permission.
These inquiries covered a wide range of issues, including allegations of cheating by the President during the 2004 election and the $503-million North Rail project assisted by the Chinese government.
Congress has little time to lose on a showdown with the Palace over the resumption of the suspended investigations. It is due to resume its session on May 15 and adjourn on June 9. The intervention of urgent economic issues spoils the expectations of fun in the circuses provided by legislative investigations. The public is likely to have a reprieve from fruitless inquiries.
( 3 )
Dads set example for healthy habits
Donya Betancourt
The father is a role model for not only his son but his daughter too; thus fathers set an example for their children to follow when forming their own health habits.
Through words and actions, fathers have the opportunity to pass on healthy living strategies to their children. Dads taking care of their own health first will ensure children put theirs first too.
What you eat affects your health, just as what your children eat affects their health. A healthy diet as we know includes a variety of fruits, vegetables, whole grains and other low-fat foods which can lower the risk of many chronic and problems, diseases such as obesity, diabetes, heart disease, strokes and some types of cancer.
As a parent, a dad has a major influence on his children's lifelong eating habits. The types of food he provides his attitude towards food such as portion size and food preferences all affect children's eating habits.
One way to encourage healthy eating is to establish family meals. Eating together as a family tends to increase the number of fruits, vegetables, whole grains and dairy products children eat. And children who eat with their family on a regular basis tend to consume less fat.
Exercising regularly and staying physically active can help prevent or delay some diseases and disabilities as we grow older. In some cases, regular exercise can improve health if one already has a disease or disability.
Physical activity can also help maintain a healthy body weight, reduce stress and anxiety, and boost psychological well-being. This means that you'll have more energy, feel good about yourself and possibly prevent conditions that could even your decrease time with your family.
Physical activity also provides a way to engage your children. Go for a bike ride, play a game of basketball or take swimming lessons together. If you're active, your kids will more likely be active. And you'll do them a favor by helping them develop important health habits.
Whether you're biking, driving to a relative's house or playing in the park, ensure your safety and your children's safety. Accidents are the leading cause of death among children aged one to 15 and it's the leading cause of death in boys and men aged 16 to 44.
Make sure your children travel safely. Always use restraint systems such as safety seats, booster seats or seat belts and make sure they're appropriate to your children's sizes.
To prevent head injuries, always wear a helmet when biking. Insist that your children do the same. In fact, children whose parents wear helmets when biking or in-line skating are more likely to wear helmets themselves.
You might think your smoking doesn't hurt anyone else. But it does. Besides causing serious illnesses in the smoker, such as cancer or heart disease, smoking also hurts other people who breathe the secondhand smoke.
Children exposed to secondhand smoke are much more likely to get ear, sinus or lung infections.
Secondhand tobacco smoke can also impair the development of children's lungs and may cause lung cancer. Also, children with asthma who live in a household where someone smokes experience a greater number of asthma attacks and more severe asthma symptoms.
Ventilation systems in homes can't remove all of the hazards from the air. Similarly, blowing way from your children, going to another room or opening a window doesn't remove all the risk of secondhand smoke.
Besides affecting your health and your children's health, smoking may also increase the chance that your children will smoke later in life. In fact, children who live with smokers are two to three times more likely to smoke themselves when they become teenagers.
So dads take these steps so that you're around to enjoy your children and grandchildren. Control any chronic health conditions, such as high blood pressure or diabetes. See your doctor regularly and schedule the recommended screening tests.
Don't ignore persistent symptoms or wait until the problem gets worse before seeing your doctor. Remember, diagnosing health problems early increases the odds or successful treatment. Show your children that you care about your health, and they'll be more likely to care about their own.
(4 )
Know when to stop drinking water
Know when to stop drinking water
Dear Dr . Donga,
I wonder about drinking water – most doctors always recommend drinking a lot of water. Is it possible to drink too much?
-Jane
Dear Jane,
Yes, it's possible to drink too much water, but it is uncommon.
If you drink more water than your kidneys can excrete, the excess water moves into the cells of your body. Water-soaked cells in your brain can cause brain swelling and lead to signs and symptoms of water excess, or overdose, including fatigue, confusion, nausea, vomiting, seizures and unconsciousness.
You normally drink fluids because of thirst, to replace perceived fluid losses and out of habit. You may drink more water on warm days, during or after strenuous exercise, with the first meal of the day or when your mouth feels dry.
Problem with too much water intake will happen if you have certain conditions impair the excretion of water including heart disease and some types of kidney, liver, adrenal and thyroid disease.
Those who compulsively drink - large amounts of water, even when not thirsty, may actually overwhelm their kidneys' ability to get rid of the water. This can lead to symptoms of water excess.
But if you are healthy the chance or this happening is very uncommon.
Dr. Donya.
( 5 )
Economy and democracy: Don’t turn out the light
Ziad Salim
Economy and democracy: Don’t turn out the light
Ziad Salim
In his insightful article (Many entrepreneurs prefer stability to democracy, The Jakarta Post on June 16,.2004), B. Herry Priyono tried to tackle what he calls "a taboo that keeps trying to stay hidden?” i.e., the link between the economy and democracy.
His first quote ("During the era of Pak Harto, at least we had stability for business") by a "typical" businesspeople he interviewed "during the 1998 turbulence" and his second ("For business, democracy or tyranny is irrelevant") by "one of (his) respondents" summed up the "taboo".
At the end of his article, Herry-Priyono asked us "to turn out the light "as a discussion on democracy is indeed really a "taboo".
While many argued back and forth over the centuries about the relationship between economy and democracy (or broadly, between economy and politics), the laws of economics are independent of politics and are governed by what Adam Smith calls "invisible hand". So of the two quotes above, the second is more valid and the "invisible hand" is all you need if you are doing a real and honest business: If not, you will need "a strong hand" instead.
So the businesspeople that long for the return of a strong man like Soeharto maybe weren't really doing business at all. In fact, they were stealing from the people, ransacking the Indonesian forest and scarring the land for their own profits. The fact of the matter, the business you run determines the system you need; so, if your business is stealing, you will want a kleptocrat running a kleptocracy; if you are doing an honest and open business, you will want an open system, namely a democracy.
In other words, if you are a Procter and Gamble or a Nestle selling consumer goods for the public, who the leader is irrelevant. The market or the "invisible hand" is all you need. But, if you are using Garuda and Pertamina facilities for your own airline and mining business or bringing in 50,000 "national cars" (that are made in Korea) escorted by national police and parked them on a public land near the airport, of course you would yearn for a strong leader (and preferably your own father).
The relationship between economy and democracy is neither taboo nor "couched in strange language" as the writer alluded.
The clamor for so-called a strong government by businesspeople is actually a red herring, because it depends on what you mean by a strong leader and which businesspeople you are talking about or talking to. The article would have shed more light, had the author revealed the background of the 86 businesspeople he interviewed. But whoever they were, interviewing them at the height of national trauma in 1998 would have produced people with "angst" who would love nothing more than to return to their good old days.
The notion of strong leaders, bandied about incessantly not only by those who miss their good old "stealing" days above but also by those with short memories or intentionally want to re-introduce a military man in public office for their own political and economic agenda. It is another a red herring because there is no really such a thing as a strong leader.
It all depends on the context (Louis the XIV who claimed himself to be the state was actually run by his wife; as was Ronald Reagan, one of the strongest of modern post-war American Presidents; even an absolute strongman like Hitler could not conquer Eva Brown or her dog). Conversely, Lee Kuan Yew (the example cited by one of the interviewees) built
In reality, the strong leader is usually only strong towards his opponents or hopeless people. Towards his own friends (or cronies and his own business children), the strong Pak Harto mentioned in the first quote was in fact weak and a pushover. He was unable to face his people or his opponents on a level playing field so he rigged every election and gebuk (clobbered) every general who dared to whisper the truth to his ear or tried to defy him.
So when he had to step down in. 1998, there wasn’t any "strong man" left to replace or rescue him or to continue his legacy as he had beaten all of them. Left to inherit his thrown was Habibie who the "typical" interviewee identified as "weak" and " knows nothing about how to create stability".
Conceptually, there is no strong leader in a democracy or more correctly, democracy does not need or rarely produce a strong leader. Democracy is the government of the people, by the people, for the people so the people vote for one leader out of themselves. That is why, a properly elected leader in a democracy is always a "small" man (or woman), because the need is not to lead the people (which calls for a strong leader) but to follow the people's wishes (by listening and responding to their wishes and grievances).
So all the world's current democracies have leaders that are truly common and ordinary. There are no more Churchills and Roosevelts to be had and even in their times they were not products of democracy but of war imposed on democracies, which turned them into giants.
History indicates that so called strong leaders usually have seized power during a crisis (like a thief in the middle of the night) then maintain it for years (by ruthlessly crushing their enemies). Then we call them strong. Those who continue to juxtapose the need for a so-called business stability and strong leader will deceive themselves and will eventually be surprised by the strong leader they conspire to promote.
We must remember that democracy is based on the trust and confidence people place on themselves and each other, to rule and to govern themselves according the values they hold dear and the laws they have written together (or through their representatives). What we need to make sure is a leader that will be true and faithful to the "social contract" and be willing to be the "servant" of the people and relinquish power when he is kicked out by the people who put him there.
That the country may have one or two "bad" leaders or the government changes; hands once too often because the people choose wrong is no reason to opt out of democracy and run into the arms of another strong man in the name of stability.
Finally, juxtaposing "stability" and "democracy" as if they are polar opposites (as in the title of the article mentioned above) is misleading. Statistically, democracies are more stable than any other systems.
Of course, it depends on how you define "stability" as there are many types of stability and they are not necessarily isomorphic. In the long run, though, democracy in
The longing for a strong man and "stability" is the same as a childhood fantasy for a father figure and a nice cuddle in the middle of the night: It will eventually die off as we grow older and gain some confidence in ourselves. While waiting, we can at least keep talking about it. It is not a "taboo", so Herry-Priyono, please do not turn off the light!
The writer, who formerly worked with several international development.
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